Colombian President, Gustavo Petro, is undertaking a high-stakes trip to the US capital to confer with American leader Donald Trump. This constitutes the initial face-to-face meeting for the two leaders following an extended period of escalating tensions and heated exchanges.
Topics for Discussion
The situation in Venezuela, narcotics trade, energy, security, and US strikes on alleged narco-boats are expected to be top on the list of topics when they gather at the US presidential residence on the scheduled day.
Background of Strained Relations
Although the two men were cordial in a phone call after a recent US military operation, Petro has since said he believes there is a "serious risk" of armed intervention targeting Colombia. Trump, for his part, has previously remarked that a military operation in Colombia "sounds good".
The upcoming meeting follows an extended period of the two leaders trading barbs. Petro has often condemned repeated US strikes on suspected drugs boats in the regional waters, as well as the White House's border policies.
"His stance shifted," Trump reportedly stating prior to the Washington talks.
Areas of Disagreement
On the US side, Trump has charged Petro's administration of not doing enough to halt the trafficking of cocaine heading north, and has vowed to extend strikes to terrestrial objectives throughout the area.
However, the hostility appeared to dissipate after a "cordial" phone call between the two leaders, which a Colombian official later described as an 180-degree turn "from both sides".
Diplomatic Bridge
According to diplomatic sources, one man – Rand Paul – was instrumental in facilitating the conversation. "I have faith in negotiation and I thought our ties were going in the wrong way," the senator reportedly. "And I'd like to see our relationship to improve."
Regional Stability and the Guerrilla Group
Prior to Tuesday's meeting, Colombian indicated that much of the discussion would center on mutual US and Colombian concerns over stability in Venezuela, with which Colombia has an extensive border.
Much of that border is under the sway of the ELN. This armed faction, founded in the 1960s, controls narco-trade, racketeering, contraband, and unlawful extraction in frontier regions and allegedly works with compromised officials within the Venezuelan government.
From the US perspective, tackling the challenge of the ELN will be vital to ensuring security for US firms engaged in Venezuela's oil industry. Experts point out that the ELN has the capacity to spoil investment plans by targeting international businesses and employees, as it has previously attempted in Colombia.
Drug War Cooperation
An similarly urgent matter for the two presidents will be the fight against drug trafficking from Colombia, the global biggest source of the narcotic. In November, Petro ordered a halt on information exchange with US authorities following comments from Washington.
The US has, conversely, officially designated Colombia as a country that has "not met its obligations" in controlling drug trafficking. It has also enacted restrictions on figures in Petro's government, including the president and his relatives.
"There is no fight without Colombia," said a analyst. "Any move to sever Colombian intelligence could also weaken all investigations."
Potential Outcomes
But even with several issues for collaboration, the potential for a clash remains. "The US President's stance can be volatile," observed a ex-official. "I suspect is that Petro will walk in with some offers to avert Trump's anger... However, it's unpredictable."
For the Colombian leader, even a contentious meeting could be beneficial. His presidential term ends in the coming months, and the results of the talks could influence the electoral chances of his preferred successor.
"To an extent, he's kind of in a favorable position," said a Latin American studies professor. "A positive outcome takes the air out of criticism... If talks sour, he's defending national sovereignty. He could use that in his favor."