A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."