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Residents of the Big Apple will discover the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who runs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has vowed to send armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The election has become an acrimonious showdown, marked by alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be key to the path that the party, struggling in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to voters' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the party arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a remarkable comeback win, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A New York defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate directly. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in recent days, after footage surfaced suggesting him implying the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd