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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently serves as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the largest resurgence receives the prize. In practice, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or just the most shocking shock.

However the current race is profoundly different. The list of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference winners declining and longtime also-rans improving collectively. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this wild and fun year, he's competing with five other elite coaches.

This is how the projected ballot should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his rare ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Almost every decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a typical season!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a given following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still